The end of the human intelligence go. Later is the age of artificial intelligence

Source：Updated：2017-03-01 08:06:33

Regularity of the world, is a human cognitive ability is insufficient, a means to simplify the understanding of the world. And is the essence of artificial intelligence, because of strong ability of calculation, is no longer strongly dependent on this simplification, and directly face the complicated world, regularity is not strong. 
 
 
The philosophy of science has a classic problem is: induction is how to ensure the correctness of the. Popper's answer: falsified theory. But the answer is not completely solve the problem. 
 
In the philosophy of science, it is not need to prove the correctness of the deductive method, because it is essentially a definition and agreement, as long as able to logic self-consistent, is right. Popper dialectical logic, for example, for example, said the dialectical logic is also for 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 2 is right, this definition can also, of course, also have no wrong, not just such a logic system. 
 
The question becomes: what kind of logic system that is useful? 
 
Associated with the first question, as a result of my insight: induction method is set up, is because it is useful. We choose the current system of deductive logic, but also for its useful. 
 
Why do induction useful? Is essentially the world exists a certain regularity. One thing happened, under the condition of the "same", it will happen again. Because have such regularity, so, induction is useful. Deductive logic is also similar. 
 
But think like this, in fact is shallow. 
 
Because thinking behavior, cognitive psychology, I have a few scattered thoughts on human cognitive law. When I see "thinking, fast and slow" such a question: the cognitive ability of human, why there are so many errors and biases? Such as one of the deviation, according to the obvious shortage of information, human beings have a natural to make some inferences logically is not established. Why is this so? Want to see is very simple: even in the case of lack of information, human also needs to make judgments, even if there is a lot of error probability. Otherwise, the result is even worse. So, a lot of human cognitive biases, it is insufficient resources when a not perfect but useful strategy. 
 
Based on this, back to see the problems above, there will be a new inspiration: humans chose the inductive method and deductive method, because it was useful, therefore, through curing to the human instinct of evolution. 
 
Can even further inference, the world is like this, not like that, but not because the world itself is how to, but because of some perspective, certain rules are most useful in humans, and therefore by humans in this way to see, to such a face. 
 
Visible, regularity of the world, is a human cognitive ability is insufficient, a means to simplify the understanding of the world. 
 
And is the essence of artificial intelligence, because of strong ability of calculation, is no longer strongly dependent on this simplification, and directly face the complicated world, regularity is not strong. 
 
The complexity of the world, and the lack of human intelligence, actually has exposed the before artificial intelligence. After world war ii, the rise of system theory, it is a study of the complex world thinking and trying. But the actual effect, to I the layman's eye, is't can be said. Although some, such as fractal, chaos theory and so on important found, but from the strict calculation and prediction of complex world, still less. 
 
Of modern medicine, for example, now find the discipline, are relevance, often only slightly better than 50%, its the principle behind how, have no explanation. Humans can't through a traditional method to simplify objects, get effective law; It can get, also is the result of the savage return completely, no interpretability, so difficult to be understood completely, only by rote. It should be said that in the face of such complex domain, human intelligence is obviously insufficient; The brutal computing and computer and statistical regression, savage no advantage. 
 
For another example, you can see more clearly understand this: if we get PI = 3.14... A sequence of digits to composition, do some kind of application; Its every number is certain, but humans can find rule, and use this rule to simplify the understanding, to analysis and forecast its application result? Completely unworkable. Can only be handed over to the computer, wild operations, to get results. 
 
Overall, I think that human intelligence is close to come to an end. After all, human intelligence is evolution of biological evolution period, facing the world, is relatively simple, the aim of the relatively simple, And modern human face world, face the task of, a lot more complicated, intelligent human instinct, enough to be in, very surprising. 
 
And the idea of artificial intelligence is, must try to find the simple, no longer can use formula to express, can be the law of the human can understand simple; Directly according to the laws of the big data for statistics, wild, come to a conclusion. 
 
Such as go again. Gobang in addition to the local structure and rules, can be simplified, with logic reasoning to analysis strategy; On the whole seems to be no structure, its strategy is irregular, rough calculation or rough memory. Far better to go, the strategy of structural, human studies out a lot of law (simplified). Among them, the Oriental like bragging, essentially, that there is a certain regularity, but also can not strictly defined and described. 
 
But whether maturity trick, or immature, were under the brutal operation of artificial intelligence. After the FIG leaf was torn off, and what kind of human intelligence, is a computer to reach? , even some simplified computer chess, human interpretation are unable to explain, it may be the human intelligence not can find its regularity, may also be the place no man can understand the regularity. 
 
I have never seen human emotion analysis, etc., will is artificial intelligence cannot transcend. But this may not have the significance. If humans become useless, so, whether human emotion and use, itself is quite suspicious. 
 
Artificial intelligence makes people become useless, how bad the consequences would be 
 
The average person when it comes to the threat of artificial intelligence, robot control human. This of course need to alert. But now I feel more and more, there are more pressing challenges for human, namely human become useless, and a series of consequences. The latter said, its political challenge. 
 
Some people think that, like the past technology progress, makes one useless, results are found the other place, human life better and better. 
 
But I think, no matter how many times in the past repeat rule, can't prove that next time or so. Artificial intelligence is quite likely, I believe, is no longer a repeat of the past. 
 
Fundamental difference: artificial intelligence, will make human all-round became useless, so human can't find other shelter. 
 
Even, the problem cannot be addressed by market regulation: if the employment of human labor ancillary costs (such as office, management costs, etc.), more than the cost of using artificial intelligence, human labor will become worthless. 
 
At that time, most people's labor will become worthless, are not needed. Only a few people and labor value. 
 
By then, humans will face a political decision. 
 
One option is to liberalism + evolution. The end result is the income of a few people have work to become the top of the society, the vast majority of people doing nothing marginalized and eliminated. If this class differentiation to solidify, then, under the long-term isolation evolution, eventually differentiate into two species, as in the case of the movie "time machine", is not impossible. 
 
The other option is a sense of egalitarianism, in willing to work under the premise of the average distribution of job opportunities, such as a week in January each year. 
 
I personally, pessimistic, think of the former. Civilization achievement of human society, are ultimately derived from people is useful. Useful people, there will be a game of capital, to benefit their own living environment, so that the society is becoming more and more civilized. 
 
Humans from killing members of rival tribes to slavery, because human labor can create value is greater than the slavery of its cost. Humans from slavery to payless-duty because the human labor value raised, through the tenancy arouse the enthusiasm of the labor of slaves become profitable. Human into the democratic system in modern times, because of industry and commerce developed, make people the value of further ascension, war between the nation state, must be more to mobilize the masses, so that the latter's value enhancement - you know, the modern welfare system, the first or the first, was born in the most conservative German bismarck period. Actually has always been some people think that, after China's reform and opening up the progress, as well as the main driving force of the future democratization, is becoming more and more valuable. 
 
And, in turn, if humans become useless, the human civilization achievement of all is likely to be drained. You no use, why should I give you benefits, the right for you? 
 
On political issues, my power and the strength of reciprocity. It is ought to be and reality -- don't have enough strength, it is impossible to maintain the corresponding power; But not have enough power to the appropriate power, strength would rise in open rebellion caused social unrest long-term sustained; So, the long run, both always equal. 
 
And democracy, the public power and thus the result of the rising power, and behind it, is the public is becoming more and more valuable, is becoming more and more useful. If the public is becoming more and more useless, its power and even the loss of welfare, will be inevitable. Like the Roman republic into the Roman empire, the weimar republic degenerate into the third Reich, like trump came to power, all of these have no what can't imagine, when arrived, everything becomes natural, well-deserved.