How will artificial intelligence reshape the world socioeconomic landscape

Source：Updated：2017-12-13 10:58:44

The impact of artificial intelligence on the economy is mainly reflected in three aspects: what will it bring to the economy? Where will it lead us? How fast and how far will it change? These three issues are important factors that determine the economic development of the next decade or even decades.
 
Recently some report provides a constructive answer these three questions: today AI's ability may be far worse than I thought it would be you, but the ability of future it will be far beyond my imagination, you will be applied in the field of more than you can imagine, it will also more rapidly than a new technology in human history the influence of the development of the world.
 
These constantly emerging, the report itself is a symbol of development of AI researchers from different areas were trying to understand the AI's trajectory, technical boundary on each dimension, and the impact on the existing technology, looking for like unmanned and image recognition to the outbreak of large-scale application. Today's technology is a thousand miles away, and the company is in the market for a range of products that are labeled AI, and everything is changing rapidly.
 
From institutions such as Stanford, MIT researchers have created a called AI index evaluation indexes, through the heat measurement technology development, investment, study at the university of application and participation level to track the trend of the development of artificial intelligence. The aim of this project is to better collect, organize and update relevant data to provide corresponding data support and decision support for scientists, business people and policy makers.
 
Meanwhile the McKinsey global institute has issued a report on automation and employment reports, prospects the technology may be a series of influence on employment, and according to the industry in different countries are detailed analyzed. The study shows a very pressing fact: one in three americans will be making a career transition by 2030 (ie, losing their job search for a new job).
 
How will artificial intelligence reshape the world socioeconomic landscape?
Another study, which is based on the national institute of economics, was written by economists from the Massachusetts institute of technology and the university of Chicago. In this paper, researchers mainly answer the reasons why research and investment in artificial intelligence have so far contributed little to productivity.
 
Although the focus of each report is different, three reports around the development of artificial intelligence have raised similar main points:
 
The technology itself determines only one aspect of the trajectory of AI development and economic and social impact, and the attitude of economy, policy and society to AI is the main influencing factor in this technological evolution.
 
The technological change in history is similar to the development trend of AI today, but it has different development rhythm. The AI process would be much faster than previous wave of technological revolution, as the researchers predicted, AI technology wave will bring society more violent transformation process and profound social influence.
 
AI index is rooted in Stanford university since 2014 the research project of "artificial intelligence research" in one hundred, it is mainly composed of scientists and researchers to from the perspective of a broader understanding of artificial intelligence and to benefit the development of the society.
 
How will artificial intelligence reshape the world socioeconomic landscape?
The index is not just a simple Numbers, it examines the specific in including specific technical progress in the field of image recognition and voice recognition, but also analyzes the startup's vitality and new job opportunities, at the same time also includes the introduction of expert for field. Vivid ICONS have been added to the report to show detailed information, such as diagrams that clearly show that AI has surpassed human levels in image recognition and speech recognition.
 
But AI technologists have given such advice that the high performance of certain tasks does not mean universal artificial intelligence. Small children understand that it's easy to drop the cups on the edge of the table because they have a physical understanding of the everyday world, but it's difficult for AI.
 
Researchers often said that the public is now about the AI index expectation is beyond the research category, AI index is only the beginning, and now the whole team is still in the tension constant search of the world within the scope of the data, information, and partners from industry and academia. They want to turn the index into a dynamic AI development barometer, covering as many dimensions and areas as possible, even including AI's impact on society.
 
Information about this index will give people as much as possible to understand and adapt to changes in the AI, and according to this to make better decisions, both individual and organization, in the face of change.
 
McKinsey's report on automation and employment captures the uncertainty and potential impact of AI on the Labour market. In the report, there will be 16 million to 54 million americans looking for new jobs, and how much will depend on the speed of the technology application. The faster AI develops, the more pressure society will face. McKinsey report forecasting potential unemployment to a large extent reflect the technological revolution is more severe than the previous ones labor transfer trend (editor's note: the two previous technological revolution has created from farmland to factories, from manufacturing to service industry transformation).
 
How will artificial intelligence reshape the world socioeconomic landscape?
The impact of technology will bring dramatic changes to society, which is also the focus of this report. How to manage effectively and deal with this change is the main task facing our society today. Not only do you need to focus on the unemployment rate, you need to provide training and reemployment opportunities for people who have lost their jobs, and to help them get through the bottom of their lives.
 
In order to answer why the current AI influence has not yet been evident in the economic field, the authors of the third report believe that this is the result of the gap between expectations and statistics. They point out that serious expectations and mis-measures may be responsible for the drop. But more important is the impact of a lag in the application of technology.
 
They go back to the revolution of electric power development, motor factory was introduced in 1880, but it was not until 1920, showing obvious productivity, which is due to the spread of the motor and the inevitable result of the large scale application. (editor's note: a technical transformation and application of the economic development of the time difference, the upgrading of technology and the current in all areas of propulsion needs certain time to infiltrate finish, then can we improve the massive social overall productivity).
 
AI will evolve along the same trajectory, but it will be even faster. The experience of history tells us that the most advanced technology will take many years to penetrate into all aspects of society. But for AI, this is what's going on, and it's starting to change between you and me!