China is becoming the main battlefield for robots

Source：Updated：2018-03-21 08:09:26

Since 13 years ago, China has become the world's largest consumer of robots, and the production of domestic industrial robots has increased dramatically, from the original annual output of 9,000 to the current 120,000. Over the past three axis, four axis are also gradually become more dominant joints, but as upstream of the core components of industrial robot reducer main market is held by Japanese companies, machine of decelerate of domestic market share is still low.

In the past two years, the delivery cycle of the import reducer has been extended, and the period of 6-12 months has become the norm. Is there any opportunity for the domestic slowdown machine to open up in the domestic market?

One, the decelerator giant to domestic market plan - only will pay more and more attention.
Foreign countries in advanced speed reducer design and production has been very mature, market share is very considerable. And in the field of industrial robotics, Japanese companies dominate absolute dominance. The two companies, one and two, account for 75 per cent of the world's industrial robot reducer market.

The development plan and the China market planning forecast.

Industrial robots currently main RV reducer reducer type harmonic reducer is given priority to, and he was accounted for 60% global market share, / reloading the robot in its RV reducer is up to 90% of the share, in June 2017 the RV reducer on the cumulative production to 7 million units.

The company announced that it will to Japan the main factory of tianjin city and China changzhou factory in 7 billion to improve yield, are expected to reach 840000 units, annual production of 2018 1.06 million, 2019 to 2020 will increase production to 1.2 million units, changzhou factory production capacity is 200000 sets.

The picture shows the third quarter results of 2016 and the third quarter of 2017.

Thus it can be seen that, bothe tusk is expected in the future will be a period of time will be around 20% of capacity in the Chinese market, about 240000 units each year levels to respond to the surge in the Chinese market.

The same as the world's largest producer of harmonic reducer hammer naco, accounts for about 15% of the global market, in 2011 the Chinese market layout, investment in China set up wholly owned sales subsidiaries for the Chinese market sales. Meanwhile, foreign companies such as sumitomo and Spinea are also stepping up their layout. Such cutting-edge and well-known foreign companies will only become more and more familiar with the Chinese market and pay more attention to it.

Ii. The demand scale of domestic reducer -- over 1 million and 7 billion.
According to the national authoritative department, the new demand for the decelerator in 2015 is 23. 60,000 sets, up to 29 in 2016. 60, 000 sets, and 36 in 2017. In 2018, China's industrial robots will need to increase the new demand for gear reducers to 46. 20000 sets.

The picture shows the sales estimate of China's industrial robots.

In 2018, the sales of domestic industrial robots will reach 12. The market size of the industrial robot reducer will reach 2.5 billion yuan. According to the sales estimate of China's industrial robots, the demand for industrial robot reducer will be 900,000 in 2020 (usually 4-6 reducers per robot); It is expected that the demand for industrial robot reducer will reach 105 million in 2025, and the demand scale will remain above 7.5 billion yuan.

Iii. Current situation of domestic reducer.
In 2015, the market size of China's industrial robot reducer was about 11. 500 million yuan is expected to expand to 4 billion yuan in 2020, and the profit will drive domestic capital to develop the domestic reducer. In addition, the domestic industrial robots are sincerely looking forward to the development of the domestic reducer. Fortunately, there have been a number of excellent domestic reducer enterprises in China.

The picture shows the domestic reducer enterprise.

4. Development problems and solutions of domestic reducer.
To some extent, those without government subsidies and support enough cases, also insisted on research, development, production reducer enterprise should be given enough respect, because the present domestic most enterprise in machine of decelerate of doing basic are to operate at a loss.

This is closely related to several problems of domestic reducer.

First of all, the domestic market is not stable, reducer on domestic market reducer trust is extremely low, the service life of the foreign manufacturer of speed reducer guarantee for 8 to 10 years, the domestic reducer on the market but also four to five years, life is truly for the validation of the time. And even a joke said that "industrial robots out of the question, with foreign priority rule out of gear reducer reducer has a problem, with domestic reducer is priority check reducer is wrong."

In fact, the performance of domestic reducer can be compared with some foreign products. In recent years, the price of foreign RV and harmonic reducers has fallen by 40% to 50%, and the domestic slowdown is indeed a threat to the foreign enterprise market. At present, the price of the Japanese reducer is 20% higher than the domestic price. If the price difference is more than 30%, the customers will prefer the domestic product.

Secondly, the equipment and research and development cost are high, the equipment of processing and manufacturing reducer is extremely expensive, easily tens of millions.

There is also a joke that a financial reporter asked the manufacturer: "what are you going to do with the financing of 300 million yuan?"

"Start with the arrears of the suppliers, the arrears of wages, the bonuses, and then the arrears of the equipment."

"And the rest?

The boss raised his head and spat out "what's left, slowly... "

Thirdly, mass production was not achieved. In fact, many enterprises have the conditions and capabilities of mass production. However, due to commercial prudence, they often produce according to the actual order, so the average cost is raised. But with the temptations of the market over the years, enterprises have begun to gradually realize large-scale production, to believe in the near future domestic reducer will appear in the mass production with foreign products on the market for the market.

So what is the way out of the domestic reducer?

I. expanding capacity.

Production has been a problem, otherwise Japan will not extend the delivery period, if can do capacity expansion can shorten their delivery cycle, to some extent, this advantage is not possessed by abroad. This is more effective than the last straw.

The spirit of craftsman.

Domestic reducer on the technology really not sent abroad, in the case of Japan's leading technology in more than 10 years ago now is also the same level, and as the country's emphasis on the industrial robot and comprehensive development, encourage a large number of talents in this field. The performance of domestic has been able to replace the import, but the noise, the heat is still a little defective.

Third, collaborative innovation.

RV, however, is a model of the nabot speed reducer, which becomes the direction of an industry. The domestic deceleration machine is to break through, and innovation in the design of speed reducer is inevitable. But it is hard for a single enterprise to make a breakthrough in the development of a speed reducer -- the joint industrial chain and its peers are the way out. You know the giants are united in this way.

In countries at the same time the robot industry development planning (2016-2020) ", "industry innovation ability into five main tasks, the common key technology research and improve the robot innovation platform, to strengthen the construction of standard system as well as build inspection certification, improve the robot collaborative innovation" as a national policy.

With the increase of industrial robot industry, machine of decelerate of domestic market and technology for two-way auxiliary, 2018 domestic reducer is set to widen market size, growth will exceed 25%, the future of the speed reducer is bear is also light.